Prediction Markets Are Betting On A Democratic Senate Sweep

If prediction markets are to be believed, President Donald Trump is well on his way to becoming a lame-duck president once the votes are counted Tuesday.

According to bettors on Kalshi and Polymarket, Democrats are expected to sweep all seven of the key Senate races being watched by political gamblers. And the numbers are looking downright uncomfortable for Republicans.

Texas Democratic nominee James Talarico has roughly a 73% chance of defeating Republican Ken Paxton, whose seemingly endless cheating scandals still haven’t managed to bury his political ambitions. Kalshi bettors have reportedly poured some $73 million into the market, according to the Daily Beast.

Over on Polymarket, Michigan Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is sitting pretty with a 78% chance of defeating MAGA Republican Mike Rogers, despite the late endorsement of professional hater and Democratic sore loser Haley Stevens.

Kansas Democrat Adam Hamilton and Maine’s Troy Jackson are also projected to notch victories over their Republican opponents, with respective 63% and 72% chances of winning, according to Polymarket.

Meanwhile, former Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown is looking to reclaim his seat from Republican incumbent Jon Husted, with a 70% chance of winning on Kalshi and 71% on Polymarket.

Iowa is shaping up to be one of the few bright spots for Republicans, though even there, things aren’t looking particularly promising. Trump-endorsed Republican Ashley Hinson is the only GOP candidate in the seven-race prediction-market lineup with an opponent currently holding an advantage, as Democrat Josh Turek has a slight lead on both platforms.

And then there’s Alaska, where the Senate race has become a political circus thanks to two Republicans on the ballot sharing the name Dan Sullivan. Democrat Mary Peltola has a 71% chance of winning, according to Polymarket.

Perhaps Trump has been keeping an eye on the betting markets because he certainly didn’t sound particularly confident about his party’s prospects. Speaking Monday in front of the Reflection Pool, the president offered a rather gloomy assessment.

“For some reason, the sitting president doesn’t win the midterms. But we gave this a very strong shot,” Trump said.

Translation: Don’t blame me when this goes sideways.

The Daily Beast points to Trump’s dismal approval rating as one explanation for the predicted Democratic wave. A Reuters/Ipsos poll puts his approval at just 32%, a number lower than a limbo bar in Hell.

And it’s not difficult to understand why.

From an unpopular war in Iran to Americans struggling with the cost of gas and groceries, Trump’s second administration has given voters plenty of reasons to reconsider their political allegiances.

Prediction markets aren’t election results, of course. But if the bettors are right, Tuesday could deliver something Trump has spent his presidency trying to avoid: a Congress increasingly unwilling to do his bidding.

And that’s when the lame-duck jokes start writing themselves.

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