UN Security Council to Hold Closed Talks on Northern Ethiopia Tensions

The UN Security Council is set to convene closed consultations on the deteriorating situation in northern Ethiopia, as renewed tensions threaten to unravel the fragile calm established by the 2022 Pretoria Agreement and raise the prospect of a wider regional conflict.

An official from the UN Department of Political and Peace-building Affairs is expected to brief Council members during the session, according to the Security Council Report’s October 2026 Monthly Forecast, published on October 1.

The forecast highlights growing concern among Council members over the potential regional fallout of the escalating friction.

“Although [UN Secretary-General António] Guterres spoke of a ‘wind of hope’ blowing across the Horn of Africa following the 2018 peace agreement between Ethiopia and Eritrea and the normalization of relations between Djibouti and Eritrea, that optimism was subsequently undermined by the outbreak of war in the Tigray region in November 2020,” the report states. “After a cessation of hostilities brought by the November 2022 Pretoria Agreement, renewed tensions now threaten another conflict that could draw neighboring countries into a wider regional war.”

The warning comes less than four years after the Pretoria Agreement halted the two-year war in Tigray, though several key issues stemming from the conflict remain unresolved.

The latest friction coincides with a sharp downturn in Ethiopia’s diplomatic relations with its neighbors. On Thursday, Addis Ababa announced the closure of its embassy in Asmara and declared ten Eritrean diplomats persona non grata, ordering them to leave the country within 48 hours. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs accused Eritrea of engaging in “direct and indirect acts of hostility and belligerence.”

Concurrently, Ethiopia declared Egyptian diplomatic staff member Ahmed Moharam Ahmed Soliman persona non grata, giving him 48 hours to depart.

These expelled diplomats add to an increasingly volatile environment unfolding, where disputes involving Eritrea and Egypt intersect with broader Horn of Africa security challenges. The Security Council Report frames the situation in northern Ethiopia within this wider regional instability, noting that the ongoing war in Sudan—between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF)—is driving shift-heavy alliances, including a recent alignment between the RSF and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N).

Briefing reporters on Thursday, Stéphane Dujarric, the UN secretary-general’s spokesperson; said escalating drone activities and air strikes across northern Ethiopia are placing civilians, critical infrastructure and humanitarian operations at growing risk.

Despite remaining on the ground, the UN and its partners are having to negotiate humanitarian access case by case, as the uncertain security situation complicates efforts to reach people in need.

“I would say the situation remains both extremely worrying and murky. But we do know that there are a lot of humanitarian needs, and we are doing whatever we can to access those people in need,” he told reporters.

The Security Council’s October agenda includes its annual session on cooperation with regional and sub-regional bodies, focusing specifically on the African Union. Members of the AU Peace and Security Council are scheduled to travel to New York for their 20th annual joint consultative meeting with the Security Council on October 23, following an informal joint seminar on October 22.

In response to the developments, the AU Commission issued a statement on Thursday offering support for de-escalation, dialogue, and peaceful resolution.

“The African Union Commission is closely following with concern the heightened tensions between Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Egypt,” the Commission stated. “The Commission calls on all three Member States to exercise maximum restraint and refrain from actions or statements that could further escalate tensions and undermine regional peace and stability. The Commission further underscores the importance of preserving channels of communication and urges the three countries to address their differences through established diplomatic channels and peaceful dialogue, in accordance with the principles of the Constitutive Act of the African Union.”

In October, the UN Security Council is also expected to receive the regular 120-day briefing on the situation in Sudan. During the month, the Security Council is also expected to vote on a draft resolution to extend the 1591 Sudan sanctions regime.

By Mintesinot Nigussie