How Did Madonna’s ‘Confessions II’ Score Such a Successful First-Week Debut?

Six and a half years into the 2020s, and we still hadn’t gotten a new album from Madonna, who we last heard from in full on 2019’s Madame X set. But on July 3, she finally returned, and with a sequel set to perhaps her most-beloved LP of this century to this point: Confessions II, follow-up to 2005’s Confessions on a Dance Floor.

This week, the set debuts atop the Billboard 200 (dated July 18), with an impressive total of 134,000 first-week units. That number marks Madonna’s best first-week performance since 2012’s MDNA set, and includes her best single-week streaming numbers to date. (As her 10th career No. 1 album on the chart, it also makes her one of just four artists to have achieved double-digit No. 1s on both the Billboard Hot 100 and Billboard 200.)

How was she able to achieve such a head-turning first-week performance so deep into her legendary pop career? And what classic ’00s album could be next to receive such a sequel? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

1. Madonna’s Confessions II bows atop the Billboard 200 this week with 134,000 first-week units, her best single-week total since 2012’s MDNA, including her best-ever streaming numbers. On a scale from 1-10, how big a deal do you think this is for Madonna? 

Chris Eggertsen: I’m gonna go with 7. Madonna is a generation-spanning icon, and she certainly doesn’t need any more hits; her legacy is secure. But after a lukewarm fan and critical reception to her last few albums, Confessions II already feels like her most beloved set since Confessions on a Dance Floor dropped in 2005. It’s arguably been more than 20 years since she’s delivered an album that felt this creatively cohesive, reminding us of what made her such a compelling star at her height. Its warm embrace by fans, coupled with those solid first-week numbers, would be reason to celebrate for any artist. For a legend like Madonna, it’s icing on the cake.

Lyndsey Havens: 10! This immediately positive reception is delightful, exciting and well deserved. There were, of course, myriad facts that made a No. 1 debut feel like a lock — from Madonna’s star power and icon status to the Confessions continuation — but there’s a certain buzz surrounding this release that feels a bit surprising. That, to me, is almost a bigger deal when you consider this is Madonna’s 15th album.

Joe Lynch: 9. Not only did she hit No. 1, but she did so with a commanding total and, as you mention, her best-ever streaming week. According to Spotify, her daily first-time listeners on the platform increased 60% during release weekend (July 3-5), so it seems Confessions II was fresh (or at least prodigal) fans as well. It’s no secret I adored Madame X, but it was a big question if Madonna would ever have another mainstream career triumph – this answered that.

Taylor Mims: I am going to land at 9. Album sales are great for any artist, and can get them further up the Billboard 200 than streaming. But, whether we like it or not, streaming is where most people consume their music today (especially younger folks) and for Madonna to see her best-ever streaming numbers more than 40 years into her musical career is an amazing feat. It not only shows that her longtime fans are showing up, but that she is likely bringing in new listeners who are playing this album on repeat.  

Andrew Unterberger: An 8 feels about right. She’s not blowing her most recent totals away, exactly, but to exceed them this late into her career — and with legitimate fan and critic excitement behind all of it — is a major accomplishment that proves listeners are still interested in Madonna as far more than a play-the-hits legacy act. As someone who’s also preferred to move forward than backward — even if she had to do the latter a tiny bit this time in order to do the former — that’s a huge win for Madonna.

2. Obviously much of the hype around this album was tied to the branding of it as a sequel to 2005’s Confessions on a Dance Floor, arguably Madonna’s most beloved album of the 21st century. Is that the biggest reason for the album’s improved performance over her past two LPs, or do you see there being another bigger factor? 

Chris Eggertsen: I was intrigued, but also dubious, when the title was announced, and I also feared the worst: That Confessions II would be nothing more than a cynical grab at relevance, serving to highlight the artistic gulf between the Madonna of 2005 and the Madonna of today. Like so many others, I was pleasantly surprised to discover that the album is actually good, and ever since that first listen, I’ve played it all the way through multiple times (like the original Confessions, one of its many strengths is the way it unfolds as a continuous mix, with each song bleeding seamlessly into the next). Do I think the “Confessions” branding helped drum up interest? No doubt. But the album’s strength as a creative project is what kept people hitting play, and lifted it to the commercial heights it ultimately reached.

Lyndsey Havens: I definitely think that has contributed, but I think there are two bigger factors at play here — and the biggest is that the music is genuinely great. This isn’t a nostalgia play or recycled tracks of years past; what Madonna delivered feels fresh and compelling. Then, when you consider what she’s been up to lately — whether that’s delivering a 10-minute guest set amid Sabrina Carpenter’s headlining Coachella performance or later vibing to Anyma’s desert gig like any regular raver — I think the cross-generational and even cross-genre interest in Madonna might just be at an all-time high. 

Joe Lynch: Depends what you mean. If you’re talking about just “branding,” I think the answer is mostly no. If she’d called slapped a “Confessions II” title on Rebel Heart, I don’t think it would have performed any differently than it did. Excitement snowballed here because these marvelous songs call back to Confessions without rehashing it. The rollout of this record was also inventive and exciting – the right mix of eyebrow-raising moments (Grindr interview), inventive surprises (Times Square pop-up) and stunning visuals (Interview mag). It proved an old-school rollout might be the hot new thing these days.

Taylor Mims: Confessions II being linked to one of Madonna’s best albums is definitely a positively contributing factor. When fans love a piece of art, they want more of it and Madonna decided to deliver. But rather than immediately remaking 2005’s Dance Floor or pulling together a collection of B-sides, Madonna waited more than 20 years to revisit the project and create something that was in conversation with that album, not just a cheap turnaround to cash in on the hype.    

Andrew Unterberger: The Confessions branding helped get the ball rolling for sure, but the reason the set is generating the buzz (and the numbers) that it is owes far more to the high-level nature of the rollout and the higher-level nature of the music attached. Would it have moved a few thousand units fewer if it had been titled Everybody Get Up and Dance? Possibly, but it wouldn’t really matter in the long-term. It’s a hit because it’s a hit.

3. Does this album actually feel like a proper sequel to Dance Floor — and does it really matter whether it does or not? 

Chris Eggertsen: First, I think it does matter. If the new album had failed to share any DNA with Dance Floor, calling it Confessions II would have felt like cheap, surface-level branding. Luckily, it does feel like a proper sequel. Sonically, the albums are somewhat different: Dance Floor is, as a whole, brighter and more radio-friendly than Confessions II, which has more of a reflective, downtempo sound, particularly in its back half. But thematically, both posit the dance floor as an almost spiritual realm, where one can process and even exorcise the past — or at the very least, transcend it for a sweaty evening. That thematic similarity establishes a vital connective tissue between the two albums that puts them in conversation with each other,  and makes the experience of listening to both of them richer.

Lyndsey Havens: Yes and no, and I think that’s why it’s working. It’s not hitting listeners over the head or trying too hard to look back, but it’s not a total sonic divergence — resulting in a project that feels equally connected to its past while existing on its own in the present and staking its claim as a future Madonna fave.

Joe Lynch: Yes and yes. These songs are truly evocative of the mood, soundscapes, melodies and themes of Confessions, thanks in large part to the unique brand of dancefloor ecstasy she captures with Stuart Price. It worked not because it was called Confessions II, but because it really was a sequel to Confessions on a Dance Floor.  

Taylor Mims: It absolutely matters. If an artist is going to invoke a beloved album, it needs to be for a good reason. Madonna fans are passionate and know her work through and through. She can’t call a collection a sequel and not expect her fans to have the receipts. That being said, Confessions feels like a sequel that opens on a black screen that simply reads, “20 years later…” The dance music of 2026 is not the dance music of 2005, and Madonna makes thoughtful translations in her sound for the modern listener.  

Andrew Unterberger: It does feel that way, but in the best way that decade-separated sequels from their original do — one where you feel the weight of the years that have passed in the interim, and the deepening of your connection to the original, without losing any of the latter’s initial vitality. Even the most authentic sequels sometimes struggle to find true inspiration, but that’s not the case here. And while Confessions II didn’t have to do any of that to be a success, it might’ve had to do some of that to become an eventual catalog tentpole — which is early to call at the moment, but certainly doesn’t seem out of the realm of possibility.

4. While the album’s chart success is inarguable, the album has had a harder time on the Hot 100 so far, with only “Bring Your Love” with Sabrina Carpenter reaching the chart so far — bowing at No. 71 in May upon its release — and nothing from the set appearing on the Hot 100 in its debut week. Do you think the set will ultimately spawn a Hot 100 hit — and again, does it particularly matter one way or the matter?

Chris Eggertsen: I would love for one of the songs on Confessions II to make a major splash on the Hot 100 — in a just world, the remarkable “Danceteria” would be the song of the summer — though I fear Madonna’s days of minting massive hit singles are behind her. (Interestingly, hit singles seem to largely be the territory of the young, even as artists like Madonna, Bruce Springsteen and Paul McCartney manage to score No. 1 albums in their later years.)

In one sense, this doesn’t matter; again, Madonna has nothing left to prove. But in another sense, how great would it be for a single by a 67-year-old pop star to go top 10, or even No. 1? I can’t think of any real precedent here — outside of seasonal catalog hits by artists like Brenda Lee and Mariah Carey, the closest I can get is Cher, whose “Believe” hit No. 1 on the Hot 100 when she was 52 — 15 years younger than Madonna is now. Ageism in the music business, particularly when it comes to women, is depressingly rampant, and to see Madonna summit the Hot 100 again would, in its own way, be a validation of the message she’s been making for decades now: that older women are just as vital, if not more so, than any 25-year-old pop girlie.

Lyndsey Havens: I don’t necessarily think it will, and that almost makes this success story even more compelling. It’s clearly not hitched to one single or viral moment or manufactured push — the entire project is winning. And not just on the strength of Madonna’s decades-long career, but again because the project as a whole is what’s grabbing listeners.

Joe Lynch: No and no. Might “Fragile” gain some steam at Adult Contemporary, appealing to “Frozen” fans? Possibly. But I don’t see a Hot 100 top 40 hit emerging from this set, and I don’t think it matters, either. Madonna isn’t in the radio/streaming game at this point in her career – she has a core fanbase that will follow her anywhere, but she also has a wide swath of the population who are willing to tune into a new Madonna album if it ticks the right boxes (and most of those boxes are riveted to the dancefloor). Confessions II did, and that’s the victory here.

Taylor Mims: There is always the possibility that a track from this album outside of the Carpenter collab could become a Hot 100 hit. Tracks like “Danceteria,” “Read My Lips” and “Love Sensation,” could easily be stand alone hits on the radio or on playlists. But ultimately, I don’t think it matters for this particular album. Confessions II is best consumed whole. It’s an immersive ride that propels the listener forward with tracks that flow seamlessly into one another. That doesn’t leave much room for hitting repeat on one track. With 16 tracks clocking in at just over an hour, that’s a lot of album to get through before fans replay tracks and makes it harder for one song to stand out in the pack.  

Andrew Unterberger: It doesn’t seem too likely, unfortunately. I would’ve enjoyed it, just because it’s Madonna — she’s had such an incredible catalog of hit singles to this point that it would’ve been good fun to see her a new one, in a new decade, to her ledger. But will it really matter in the legacy sense? Probably not a ton. The biggest songs will still resound like hits for the folks who care the most.

5. What’s another classic ’00s album you think is ripe for a sequel, and could potentially return results like the ones Madonna is seeing with Confessions II? 

Chris Eggertsen: This answer is a bit of a cheat, because I don’t think this could (or maybe should) ever happen. But in a perfect world, I’d love to see a sequel to Britney Spears’ Blackout. Unfairly maligned in its day, with its bleeding-edge sonic brilliance obscured by Britney’s very public breakdown at the time, its status has only continued to rise in the nearly two decades (!) since its release. I think it’s a great album, not to mention Britney’s most self-referential set of songs and a vivid document of the dark underbelly of mid-2000s tabloid culture. A Blackout follow-up reflecting back on that turbulent time, on both a personal and cultural level, would be a fascinating exercise. 

Lyndsey Havens: Ooh… I’d love for Rihanna to hit us with a follow-up album called Bad Girl Gone Good (Again). That approach would alleviate some pressure of an entirely new “comeback” album, if you will, and allow her to work within a more confined narrative given (ahem) how much time between albums has now passed. 

Joe Lynch: I would be surprised if someone on Justin Timberlake’s team isn’t taking notice of this. In lieu of a couple career stumbles, JT could use a win that reminds people why they loved him in the first place – and if he were to reunite with Timb for a FutureSex/LoveSounds sequel, even the naysayers would perk up and take a listen (or 10). Obviously, the songs are key – it’s not enough to just slap a sequel title on something, it really needs to continue the conversation started by that first album.

Taylor Mims: Outkast could really make a splash with a sequel to 2003’s Speakerboxxx/The Love Below. It’s easily one of the most beloved albums of the 2000s, and fans of the original would be all over a part two. If they could tap into that early 2000s hip-hop/R&B sound, they would also draw in tons of listeners who may not be familiar with the original and ones who may not have been born when it first came out. Honestly, they could do a sequel to Stankonia as well with similar results. André 3000 could throw in some flute and we’d all be grateful! 

Andrew Unterberger: Madonna’s already given us the answer! Just hope Usher is OK with potentially sharing the title.