OPINION: ANC needs introspection; next few years are crucial

By Rebone Tau

I see people blaming the African National Congress (ANC) Secretary-General, Fikile Mbalula, for the Eastern Cape Electoral Commission (IEC) list. The biggest problem in the Eastern Cape is a political problem more than an administrative problem. You have the same faction that has been working together for some time now, no longer agreeing, and their divisions have created the political crisis in the Eastern Cape.

As long as the Top 7 at national level does not find a lasting political solution to the factionalism in the Eastern Cape, this is just the beginning for the ANC. The Eastern Cape has, for the longest time, been the home of the ANC. What we are seeing now has serious political implications for the ANC in 2029.

We are seeing the rise of the United Democratic Movement (UDM), led by General Bantu Holomisa. The UDM has seen that now is the time to invest in the Eastern Cape, and the ground is very fertile because of the divisions within the ANC.

In 2019, the ANC got 68.74% in the Eastern Cape, and in 2024 they got 62.38%. This shows that there is a decline in the province. In 2004, the ANC got 69.69%, and if you check in 2009, after the formation of the Congress of the People (COPE), they had a minor decline to 68.82%. This showed that people still believed in the ANC despite the formation of COPE following the Polokwane conference.

But today, the voter is no longer as loyal because there are a lot of political parties that have been formed over the years, and people have more choices now.

On the weekend of 22 August, when the ANC national leadership was announcing their mayoral nominees, most of the EC mayoral nominees did not attend the Sandton gathering because they were busy with the list process in the province. That alone was a sign that there is a serious political crisis that is now affecting the list process.

Some might want to say this is about the 2027 ANC National Conference and that this is why there are divisions in the province. But it is also more about who becomes the next Premier in the Eastern Cape post-2029, since Oscar Mabuyane is serving his last term as Premier. This is more about the power struggle in the province than anything else.

Yes, Mbalula is the Secretary-General, and he is dealing with the administrative processes. The mistake many make is that they want to throw the Constitution at a political problem when it might be viewed as an administrative challenge. But one thing is for sure: it has been created by a political problem.

If the ANC Top 7 and the National Working Committee (NWC) do not find a lasting political solution, they are likely not to win outright in 2029. We are likely to see another decline of the ANC in that province, and we could see them in a coalition.

Currently, the ANC is in coalitions in some provinces because they failed over the years to manage their own internal challenges. This has weakened the organisation because, after every conference, people are purged. Those who have lost the conference are pushed aside, and there is no longer a spirit of comradeship within the ANC.

The ANC talks about renewal, but we don’t see it when it comes to factionalism within the party and taking serious political decisions that can help in rebuilding the organisation.

The question is: is this one of the weakest National Executive Committees (NEC) of the ANC?

The problem with the ANC, in my view, is not individuals. They are going to their conference next year, and I don’t see them improving as a political party because they are more inward-looking and don’t want to transform the party. I don’t even think Dr Patrice Motsepe can solve the problems of the ANC, as we have seen some saying he should be the next president. There is a need for political will from all its members for any change.

We have a lot of former ANCYL leaders in the current NEC, but they seem to be allowing the ANC to die a slow death. We should be seeing a more vibrant and youthful organisation.

Once the ANC loses the Eastern Cape, it will be difficult to get it back. This needs to be in the interest of the National Executive Committee because that means that in 2029 they will be fighting to be high on the list for Parliament, just to be safe, because they will likely get less than what they got in the 2024 elections.

If the ANC wants to bounce back in 2029, they need to find political solutions, and their members need to stop being too factional. And stop seeing the ANC as a way to advance their career; it should be about serving the people.

Being in politics should be a calling and not about Blue Lights.

Rebone Tau is a political commentator and author of The Rise and Fall of the ANCYL. She is a Research Fellow at the Institute for Pan-African Thought & Conversation (IPATC) at the University of Johannesburg. She writes in her personal capacity.