Africa’s next decade will be the age of changing the structure of African economies and trade

Africa has an abundance of resources, as well as the capital, to build. More value must remain on the continent over the next decade.

When I took the oath of office as the fourth President of Afreximbank on 25 October 2025, I made a profound commitment to the shareholders of the Bank and the African continent; a commitment to promote the processing of the continent’s minerals and agricultural commodities. This, in a nutshell, is Afreximbank’s mission. 

The Bank was created to transform the structure of Africa’s trade, a structure that remains too dependent on commodity extraction and export. To change it, we must process, and we must produce. Unless Africa produces, Africa cannot trade on the scale required to create lasting prosperity.

A decade ago, in 2016, at the 23rd Annual Meetings of Afreximbank in Seychelles, former President Chief Olusegun Obasanjo of Nigeria shared a pivotal moment from his tenure during a late-evening fireside chat. He recounted one of his most consequential decisions: calling a few young entrepreneurs and industrialists – then major importers of manufactured goods such as cement, rice and other essentials – and challenging them to shift their business models towards domestic production within three years. 

He assured them that this would be supported by government policy, including a ban on imports of those items. True to his word, Nigeria banned cement imports in 2001 and subsequently extended bans on other products. This courageous decision has since transformed Nigeria into a major producer and exporter of cement and fertilisers, achieved self-sufficiency in rice production, and positioned the country as an industrial leader in the refinery sector. 

Today, Nigeria is a net exporter of cement and produces all the rice that it consumes.

Ethiopia offers another compelling example of rapid economic transformation in Africa. Between 2004 and 2020, the country recorded an exceptional pace of expansion – often referred to as the “Ethiopian Miracle” – with growth averaging above 11%. 

Over this period, its economy expanded dramatically, rising from a modest $10 billion in 2004 to about $150 bn in 2024, and positioning Ethiopia among Africa’s five largest economies. This performance was underpinned by a bold, homegrown industrial development programme, supported by carefully selected international partnerships.

Mindset shift

Whilst Nigeria and Ethiopia have shown what can be done, as a continent, we still export too much in terms of raw materials, and we import too much of what we could produce. Primary commodities still account for over 75% of our exports while manufacturers account for 60% of all imports. With this trade structure, Africa realises marginal value from its natural resources, allowing value to leave our shores, only to buy it back at a cost far more than the original price. 

It is therefore striking that, despite exporting more than 1.02 mn tonnes of cashew – more than twice Vietnam’s 480,000 tonnes – Côte d’Ivoire earns only about $1.2 bn in export revenues, compared with Vietnam’s $3 bn. The consequence is high unemployment, weak industrial capacity and a heightened vulnerability to external shocks – and the limited capacity of governments to generate domestic revenues to build the economic and social infrastructure they would promise to their people.

Achieving a similar transformation for the continent as a whole to what has been achieved in Nigeria will require a significant mindset shift – from timidity to courage: the courage to break with orthodoxy and pursue bold programmes that bring real change to African countries and their people. It requires the continent’s leaders to take the courageous step to pursue domestic processing, not pandering to the dictates of others but instead pursuing their own aspirations.

The experiences of Nigeria, Asian economies, and the broader history of industrial transformation make it clear that structural change in Africa cannot be achieved effortlessly. It cannot be built on empty rhetoric but must start with government-led industrial policies or strategies that translate decades-old wishes and aspirations into actionable plans and provide deliberate incentives to advance local processing.

The answer, however, cannot simply lie in banning the export of raw minerals, such as cocoa, cotton, rubber or indeed any other commodity. Export restrictions may create space for local industry, but that will not create an industrial strategy. The key is to put capital on the table and attract the requisite expertise that is usually lacking in critical sectors. It must also include investing in infrastructure that supports processing, including energy generation, transmission and distribution, as well as transport and port infrastructure.

The past decade has shown what is possible

When Afreximbank decided to invest in the development of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) in Gabon, Benin, Togo, and elsewhere, it did so not for immediate financial rewards to the institution and its shareholders, but because it was the path to transforming local economies. These industrial zones are already creating domestic supply chains and lifting thousands out of poverty. The spillover benefits of social investments are also evident: hospital service upgrades, improved access to education, and increased government revenues are among the many positive outcomes.

In Togo, the Adétikopé Industrial Platform has boosted the country’s manufactured exports by 10%, supported 13,000 farmers and created more than 3,000 new jobs. 

In Gabon, wood processing has shown the value of domestic transformation, generating 8,000 direct and 12,000 indirect jobs.

In Nigeria, the Dangote Refinery, for which Afreximbank is the primary lender, is strengthening Africa’s journey towards energy self-sufficiency. These projects are not in isolation. They are examples of a model which begins with identifying a value chain, then proceeds to mobilising finance, building infrastructure, harnessing investors and, ultimately, ensuring that more value remains on the continent.

That model must now be replicated and scaled across Africa. 

The Kenyan government’s recent ban on exporting raw minerals, by rolling out new mining regulations, was designed to promote local value addition and raise earnings for local communities. This decision reflects a wider recognition that the continent cannot remain a warehouse for the world’s industrial ambitions. However, policy must be matched by finance, infrastructure and execution. 

If we seek to process minerals, we need power, transport, logistics, technology, skills and investable projects. If we seek to manufacture batteries, automotive components, textiles, tyres or pharmaceuticals, we need investors who see credible industrial ecosystems, not fragmented markets and regulatory barriers.

And this is why partnerships are important.

The sheer volume of capital required cannot be secured by any single institution. Africa needs a coalition of the willing: governments, MFIs, national banks, commercial banks, institutional investors, all of which are aligned around processing and manufacturing plans for the continent.

Take rubber, for example. 

Liberia has a long history in rubber production and once had a proud heritage in tyre manufacturing. That capacity and value chain must be rebuilt. The ambition should not be limited to exporting rubber but expanded to produce tyres and other rubber-based products within Africa, serving African transport, logistics, construction and other sectors and services besides. The same logic applies to cocoa, where Africa has experimented with processing initiatives before but with mixed results.

Cotton offers another compelling opportunity

At the WTO Ministerial Conference in Yaoundé, I made clear that our ambition must be to process African cotton on African soil and build a globally competitive textile and garment industry. Through investments in Special Economic Zones and partnerships with industrial platforms, we are working towards a future in which African cotton leaves the continent as fabrics, garments and finished products, not as unprocessed fibre. 

Since 2003, Africa’s so-called Cotton 4 countries (now Cotton 4+) have advocated through the WTO for a level playing field by calling for the removal of cotton subsidies granted to farmers in developed economies. In today’s competitive world, African countries must learn to rely on themselves and forge alliances that advance their development goals. 

Shifting from exporting cotton bales to processing and manufacturing garments and textiles offers the best prospects for these economies. The African apparel market is substantial, with garment and textile imports amounting to $10 billion per year. These imports could be replaced by supplies from factories in Benin, Togo, Côte d’Ivoire, and other cotton processing countries. 

In Benin, investment in industrial capacity has helped move cotton from raw exports into textiles and garments, supplying quality products to major global brands such as Nike, Zara and H&M.

A coordinated ecosystem

Realising this ambition will depend on coordinated investment across the entire value chain: reliable power, transport and logistics infrastructure, access to affordable long-term finance, modern machinery, skilled labour, quality standards and stronger links between farmers, processors and manufacturers. It will also require governments to align industrial, trade and investment policies so that African producers can compete at scale, access regional markets and meet the requirements of global buyers.

Special Economic Zones and industrial platforms can provide the foundation, but their success will depend on the wider ecosystem that enables production to move efficiently from the farm to the factory and ultimately to the consumer.

The second objective is more structural. 

Africa cannot continue to rely on economic arrangements in which a conflict thousands of miles away can so quickly threaten development at home. If we are serious about resilience, then resilience must mean more than access to emergency liquidity. It must mean building and refining capacity, fertiliser production, strategic logistics corridors, storage infrastructure, export-processing capabilities and payment systems that allow more of our trade to be processed and financed on our own terms.

I am delighted that with South Africa’s membership of Afreximbank, the scale and potential for industry-based structural transformation has improved tremendously. 

As the largest economy in Africa, South Africa brings deep industrial capacity, financial firepower and regional reach. It gives the Bank full continental coverage and strengthens our ability to mobilise investment for manufacturing, energy, industrial parks and inclusive financing.

Yet capital will not be enough. 

Delivering Africa’s industrial ambitions will require a shared shift in mindset across institutions, with greater urgency, coordination and focus on enabling enterprise. Business registration, port clearance, licensing and other administrative processes must become faster, simpler and more predictable. Industrialisation cannot advance where bureaucracy slows investment and trade. Every part of the system must be aligned around facilitating productive activity, removing unnecessary barriers and helping businesses move from ambition to execution.

Industrialisation is the beacon of hope. It represents the foundation of jobs, resilience, sovereignty, economic progress and dignity. Africa has an abundance of resources, as well as the capital, to build. I repeat, we need a coalition of the willing to make it happen.

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