A nervous country

How should ordinary people think about this absolute sense of nervousness that has engulfed Uganda in ways that leaves no one behind: Government workers, NRM politicians, line ministers, security forces – are all talking in whispers, unsure about the nature of power in the present moment.

Who is in charge? PLU or NRM? Has Gen. Kainerugaba finally overthrown Gen. Museveni or have these two entered a transitional partnership? How does it work? What is this exhibitionist display of power that undermines all our pretensions of democracy?

In an abstract country like Uganda – for political actors, activists, media personalities and noisy academics – the safety has been associating with the party in power. Or sticking to the fiction of constitutionalism. Not anymore. Not because order has finally returned.

But because there is an entirely new set of dynamics. Even belonging or declaring allegiance to Patriotic League Uganda (PLU) might not be safe enough. While these actions are not necessarily new – abductions, media closures, denials of bail – the way they are being executed has hit a new height.

It is confusing somehow. I have some theories attempting to explain this nervousness: (a) the Boda-Boda 2010 phenomenon, and (b) the coy-mistress phenomenon. But overall, we have entered a slow-moving transitional phase, and this is wrecking our nerves.

PLU IN CHARGE – BUT NOT IN CHARGE

The story will be told that right after Museveni was sworn in for his 40th year as president, his son, Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba appeared to be the director of government business right from the swearing-in ground at Kololo Airstrip.

A still image of then powerful speaker, Hon. Anita Annet Among, alongside her husband, Hassim Magogo, appearing to engage in conversation with a visibly disinterested General stole the show.

As one jester asked, “why were they not on their knees?”

In dramatic fashion, AAA ended up under house arrest, and never made it back as Speaker. How the mighty fall! Like Donald Trump, social media platforms – especially X – is the space where the PLU leader runs “his government” or communicates to the country.

Sometimes, he posts jokes about women with big bottoms. Other times, he posts threats, and outright orders. He often comes clean on them. To this end, the entire country continues on nervously because it remains difficult to differentiate between Muhoozi’s jokes and actual threats.

Like, is being “mad in love” with Beyoncé a joke or an actual thing? What is undeniable is that he is leading government business – and everyone else has to fall in line.

After the dramatic takedown of AAA – gaily dramatized online – senior lawyer Erias Lukwago, former mayor of Kampala City, and a leading member of the legal team representing political prisoners, Kizza Besigye and Obeid Lutale, would be abducted from his house after seeking to serve the CDF with summonses to court.

The good soldier quickly updated the country, sharing a victory picture of the abducted advocate in his basement. In a white T-shirt, and in blindfolds, his head had been shaven clean.

The picture was captioned, “ongea Kiswahili” a language associated with military power in Uganda. Then quickly, Lukwago’s colleague on the Besigye-Lutale case, Kenyan politician and lawyer, Martha Karua, would be denied entry into Uganda.

There was more coming: Media houses NTV-Uganda and Daily Monitor would be closed. Renowned activist, Miria Matembe got abducted. Journalist and critic, Timothy Kalyegira got abducted.

AGORA activists were summoned to record statements at police. A few days ago, Hon. Muwanga Kivumbi just a day out of prison, was abducted.

LIKE BODA-BODA 2010

Gen. Kainerugaba/PLU inside NRM/Government is reminiscent of a once powerful outfit (of mobilisers and vigilantes) called Boda-Boda 2010 that operated inside the Uganda Police. At some point, it became leader of police business.

Empowered by the IGP himself, Boda-Boda 2010, although not recognized in the police hierarchy, had superpowers. They would transfer an Officer in Charge (OC) of a police post and inform the IGP weeks later.

They would arrest other riders, collect tolls as they so wished, and inform the IGP later. Doesn’t this sound familiar when line ministries woke up to the closure of Daily Monitor and NTV?

Poor man, UCC boss Nyombi Thembo told the country they would investigate the matter, and moments later, PLU’s Andrew Mwenda announced a completed successful meeting and that the media houses would be open soon. Ouch! (They remain closed).

In the wake of Boda-Boda 2010’s rise, both the country and regular police officers did not know how to go about their lives. Entire police posts would hold their services waiting for instructions not from the IGP but from Hajji Abdallah Kitata, the outfit’s boss.

In truth, although this gives Boda-Boda 2010 vibes, PLU is bigger and more sophisticated. But the nervousness remains as PLU directs government business despite not being a legally-constituted government unit.

MUHOOZI’S COYNESS

One of the most confusing things in this entire movie is Muhoozi’s coyness while around the chair. It reminds me of Andrew Marvel’s poem, To His Coy Mistress about a woman taking forever to make up her mind.

The suitor finally bursts out in anger, reminding her the world is moving so fast, and they too are getting old.

He threatens her about how her procrastination might have them both killed in love: “Thy beauty shall no more be found/… That long- preserved virginity/ And your quaint honour turn to dust.”

Muhoozi’s coyness about taking power has surely taken a toll on all political actors especially inside the NRM. Being the closest to succeeding his father, Muhoozi has become even more confusing.

He has forced NRM politicians into an embarrassing dual loyalty. They have to belong to NRM but at the same time have to declare allegiance to PLU. Sadly, with the exception of the old man, Ofwono Opondo, all others are afraid of voicing their frustrations. In the process, it is living on the edge.

yusufkajura@gmail.com

The author is a political theorist based at Makerere University.

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