When the pendulum swings

The views expressed in this article are those of the writer and not necessarily those of Breaking Belize News.

Dr. Philip Castillo: In any two party democracy, the pendulum eventually swings. Key word…eventually. But what makes it swing?

Focus on the comparatively more recent “Pendulum Swing” General Elections and recall the tremendous outpouring of pure national joy that accompanied such elections in Belize.  Mr. Said Musa and the PUP won the pendulum swing General Elections in 1998 with a national total of 59.3% of votes and was the first to repeat in 2003 with a national total of 52.8%. In the subsequent five year span from 2003 to 2008, the pendulum again swung such that the PUP lost badly in 2008, when they obtained only obtained 40.9% of the votes. What made the pendulum swing? Was it one issue? A combination of several issues? American pollsters coin the phrase “wedge issue” to focus on a defining issue that motivates single issue voters or brings out less motivated and occasional voters. Was there a wedge issue in 2008 that “moved the needle”? This is another phrase used by pollsters to describe a seismic shift in political fortunes.

Mr. Dean Barrow and the UDP won the pendulum swing national elections in 2008, with 56.3% of the national vote and kept wining for three consecutive elections until defeat in 2020. The same questions need to be asked. What made the pendulum swing? Was it one issue? A combination of several issues? Was there a wedge issue in 2020?

Table 1

Source: https://elections.gov.bz/general-election-results/

In general, while there are many issues that motivate a typical Belizean voter, my polls have found that generally high on their list — in no particular order are their economic situation, perceptions of corruption/malfeasance in government, candidate quality, party loyalty and family connections.  Money is important because, among other things, it is needed to motivate the base, entice the less committed and dole out favours, including outright bribery. Note the report from BelPri on money in Belizean politics.    https://heyzine.com/flip-book/8bd36f9fb4.html

Incumbency does confer advantages and in our politics, one such advantage is that it allows the incumbent to use public resources for partisan electoral advantage. We are also now aware of chicanery in the electoral process whereby voters form one constituency are transferred to another constituency. Both parties have safe houses where many voters officially reside. Both parties also activate bacon houses where benefits are doled out to partisan supporters. Money, in multiples of thousands, is required to undertake these activities.

But money also has its limitations due to what economists refer to as diminishing returns. After all, cash rich incumbent governments and cash rich individual politicians have lost, sometimes badly. In Belize, Opposition politicians are known to advise voters to “Take dem money and still vote dem out.” This is tacit acknowledgement that incumbents have money and resources, which voters are encouraged to take accept, while simultaneously voting against said incumbent. Rinse and repeat when governments change.

Fast forward to Mr. John Briceno and the PUP’s pendulum-swing victory in 2020. A victory that was repeatedly on a similar scale in 2025, facing a divided Opposition. The next  set of elections that will serve as a referendum on Mr. Briceno’s government are the municipals slated for next year 2027, then the village councils slated for the following year 2028. But will the pendulum swing?  Will the needle move? Voter turnout may provide a guide.

But Approval Ratings would likely provide a more reliable guide. My polling revealed an approval rating of 21.8% for the PM in Dangriga in February 2026. A month later in March my polls revealed an approval rating of 39.1% for the PM in Belmopan. Admittedly approval ratings are time and location specific, but I daresay, in the absence of actual elections, approval ratings polls of the Prime Minister, if regularly undertaken and countrywide in scope, would definitely provide an excellent indicator of any pendulum swing. And reasons that may cause any such swing?

Listen to the UDP talk shows. Their big issue is corruption/malfeasance in Government.  Then listen to the PUP talk show, and be regaled with the corruption/malfeasance issues that doomed the UDP in 2020 and be reminded that some players are still around. Is corruption/malfeasance  a wedge issue and will it cause any pendulum swing?

It is glaringly obvious, that for its own survival, the PUP must meaningfully address the burgeoning stench of the corruption/malfeasance issue surrounding government’s procurement and payment processes. Particularly distressing is the report of unsuitable guns to our soldiers. One indicator that the PUP has effectively  dealt with this issue is actually ensuring transparency, due process and enhanced governance such that any leaks in any procurement and payment processes are no longer necessary.

But until then, expect the UDP to  keep riding the corruption horse for as long as they can. But will that cause the pendulum to swing? Will that move the needle? And if so, would the movement be sufficient to make a meaningful difference?

At this time, focusing on Belmopan is most appropriate because both election and polling data exists. In 2020,  then novice politician Mr. Oscar Mira won 60% of the votes to defeat veteran incumbent Mr. John Saldivar. Five years later, Mr. Mira again defeated Mr. Saldivar, and this time Mr. Mira’s voting percentage had upped to 65%. Exactly one year later in March 2026, Castillo Poll # 2 recorded an approval rating of Mr. Mira at 67.5%. Fast forward couple months later to June 2026 and Mr. Mira is among the central figures in the procurement debacle and has officially obtained a leave of absence from his Cabinet duties as Minister of Home Affairs.

The above are all known and undisputed facts. There are many other known and undisputed facts regarding questionable procurement and associated payment practices involving other senior government officials. Now adding to the above, it was announced last week that the national telecoms company (BTL/Digi) is purchasing its rival (SMART) thus re-creating a de facto monopoly in the all-important telecommunications sector. Several sectors of society have mobilized in opposition.

But focusing specifically on future political outcomes, the questions are: Can any of the above be regarded as wedge issues? Has the pendulum swung? Has the needle started to move? And if so, by how much?  Would issues that are of intense interest to popular media outlets, talk show hosts, political operatives, the business and social sectors and the trade unions register as major concerns to actual voters? Or as an ephemeral blowing over of a “lee breeze?”

The President of Belize’s largest and most powerful commercial entity, Mr. Giacomo Sanchez of the Belize Chamber of Commerce and Industry, when questioned specifically on the  BTL acquisition mentioned the high degree of political apathy with the following statement:

Giacomo Sanchez, President, BCCI
“Well, the public should push back. However, there’s only a few people in the know that will feel the way we feel. However, I mean, just about 90% of Belizeans could care less.”                       https://www.7newsbelize.com/index.php#story8

Reverting back to Mr. Mira, from a objectively polled approval rating of 67.5% in March, for his electoral fortunes to be jeopardized, his approval rating would have to fall by at least 18 percentage points to hover below 50%. But possibly even more than 18%, to account for what is regarded as the statistical margin of error. A national Approval Rating for the Prime Minister is unknown.

And so then, while the political capital of the incumbent Government has diminished, to what extent has the pendulum swung? Has the needle moved sufficiently to make a difference? These are prime examples of known unknowns.

Thank you for your attention to this matter.

Dr. Philip Castillo is a development economist and an independent pollster. Send comments to pjcastillobz@gmail.com

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