‘We’ll be history’ – Mantashe warns ANC over fragmented black vote
Johannesburg – ANC national chairperson Gwede Mantashe has warned that the fragmentation of South Africa’s black electorate could threaten the African National Congress’s political survival following its poor performance in the 2026 local government elections. Speaking on an ANC podcast, Mantashe said the growing number of predominantly black political parties was weakening the collective influence of black voters and contributing... Read more → The post ‘We’ll be history’ – Mantashe warns ANC over fragmented black vote appeared first on African Insider.
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Johannesburg – ANC national chairperson Gwede Mantashe has warned that the fragmentation of South Africa’s black electorate could threaten the African National Congress’s political survival following its poor performance in the 2026 local government elections.
Speaking on an ANC podcast, Mantashe said the growing number of predominantly black political parties was weakening the collective influence of black voters and contributing to the ruling party’s declining electoral support.
Mantashe said 520 political parties contested the 2026 local government elections, with all but three or four being black parties.
“What I want people to analyse is the fragmentation of the black voter base,” he said, warning that the proliferation of smaller parties was diluting black voters’ political influence.
“The white vote consolidates while the black vote fragments. The white vote can use that advantage to drive wedges among ourselves, and you get divided further,” Mantashe said.
[WATCH] THE DANGERS OF A FRAGMENTED BLACK VOTE
The term decline is correct, we dropped from 45% to about 30%, which is a 15% decline, so that is a correct characterisation. So when you characterise a 15% percent decline as catastrophic, it’s also correct. But what I want to people to analyse as well is the fragmentation of the black voter base. We have 520 political parties that contested Local Government Elections, almost all of them besides 3 or 4 are black parties. Some won and some didn’t but the reality of the matter so many parties dilute and weaken the black vote and its influence.The white vote consolidates whilst the black vote fragments.
#ANCConnectPodcast
— ANC SECRETARY GENERAL | Fikile Mbalula (@MbalulaFikile) November 14, 2026
He cautioned that the ANC risked disappearing if it failed to recognise the dangers of electoral fragmentation.
“If we don’t understand the threat of fragmentation… in future we’ll be history,” he warned.
The ANC’s electoral decline has been significant. The party secured approximately 30% of the vote in the latest local government elections, down from 45.6% in the 2024 national and provincial elections.
A Reuters report attributed the ANC’s historic losses partly to voter dissatisfaction over corruption and poor public services, with analysts pointing to a broader shift towards performance-based voting.
The Associated Press (AP) similarly highlighted persistent service-delivery failures, unemployment, inequality and internal party divisions as factors contributing to the ANC’s declining popularity.
Mantashe’s comments come as political parties negotiate coalition arrangements across several municipalities following the elections, which left many councils without an outright majority.
[WATCH] GOVERNING AT ALL COSTS
The ANC must never seek to govern at all costs, where we are a small party we should be content with being in the opposition and be an effective opposition. Where we work with other parties we must select those parties carefully. This notion that when you work with the SA one gets stability, I don’t buy that or go and work with black parties because of the colour of their skin, I also don’t buy that. We need to look at each and every municipality and one by one develop a strategy that will work uniquely for each.
#ANCConnectPodcast
— ANC SECRETARY GENERAL | Fikile Mbalula (@MbalulaFikile) November 14, 2026
He said the ANC should not attempt to retain power at all costs and must be prepared to serve as an opposition party where it lacks sufficient support.
“The ANC must never seek to govern at all costs. Where we are a small party, we must be content to be an opposition, and an effective opposition,” he said.
He also cautioned against entering coalition agreements based solely on political convenience or racial considerations, insisting that potential partners should be assessed individually according to the circumstances in each municipality.
Despite acknowledging the party’s electoral setbacks, Mantashe maintained that the ANC was far from political collapse, saying it remained the country’s biggest governing party.
“We have declined; it is a painful process, [but] we must humble ourselves to our people and see if they’ll come back to the ANC, but we are far from being on our deathbed,” he said.
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Compiled by Betha Madhomu
The post ‘We’ll be history’ – Mantashe warns ANC over fragmented black vote appeared first on African Insider.
