Airlines enjoy passengers surge in Africa and Middle East as global market shrinks

Air Transport in Africa, as far as the passenger flights segment is concern, is blooming, at the time when elsewhere around the world the market seems to be shrinking.

Africa an outlier with continued strong demand for passenger air travel while globally the market shrinks.

This is according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA)’s recently released data for June 2026 global passenger demand.

Total demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), was down 1.7 percent in 2026, compared to June 2025.

Excluding the Middle East, demand declined by 0.6 percent.

Total capacity, measured in available seat kilometers (ASK), decreased 1.3 percent year-on-year.

The load factor was 84.2 percent (-0.4 ppt compared to June 2025).

International demand fell 0.9 percent compared to June 2025, that is excluding the Middle East, demand grew by 1.1 percent.

Capacity was down 0.6 percent year-on-year, and the load factor was 84.2 percent (-0.2 ppt compared to June 2025).

Domestic demand contracted 3.0 percent compared to June 2025.

Capacity decreased 2.4 percent year-on-year.

The load factor was 84.0 percent (-0.5 ppt compared to June 2025).

“Global demand for air travel was down 1.7 percent in June compared to 2025. This is largely due to domestic market declines in China, the US and Japan, and weak but improving international demand for Middle East carriers …

… While Middle East performance improved, renewed tensions will not help the region’s recovery and the knock-on impact of rising fuel prices will continue to burden travelers with higher airfares …

… People continue to travel, which is an important contributor to global economic growth.

… There is no doubt, however, that stabilizing the situation in the Middle East and normalizing oil supplies would improve prospects for airlines, economies and societies the world over,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

Regional Breakdown – International Passenger Markets

International RPK fell 0.9%, with capacity falling 0.6%.

Excluding the Middle East, international traffic was up 1.1%.

Asia-Pacific airlines achieved a 0.4% year-on-year increase in demand.

Capacity decreased 1.1% year-on-year, and the load factor was 84.0% (+1.3 ppt compared to June 2025).

Slower growth was a result of some carriers cutting back on short-haul routes due to higher fuel prices (capacity on international routes within Asia was down 4.8%).

European carriers saw a 1.5% year-on-year increase in demand.

Capacity increased 2.0% year-on-year, and the load factor was 87.1% (-0.5 ppt compared to June 2025).

Growth on the Europe-Asia corridor was 11.0%, the fastest growth among all major international route corridors.

North American carriers saw a decrease in demand of 1.0% year-on-year. Capacity decreased 0.7% year-on-year, and the load factor was 86.9 percent (-0.3 ppt compared to June 2025).

Middle Eastern carriers saw a 14 percent year-on-year decrease in demand. Capacity fell 11% year-on-year, and the load factor was 76.3% (-2.6 ppt compared to June 2025).

The impacts of the Iran war continue to cause a highly negative year-on-year traffic comparison, but the rate of decline halved month-to-month since April.

This reflects both the gradual normalization of airline operations across the region and the lower comparison base as traffic in June 2025 was impacted by the military strikes that month.

Latin American airlines achieved a 3.5% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity climbed 6.3% year-on-year. The load factor was 81.6% (-2.2 ppt compared to June 2025).

African airlines saw a 6.7% year-on-year increase in demand.

Capacity was up 7.0% year-on-year. The load factor was 74.2% (-0.3 ppt compared to June 2025).

Domestic Passenger Markets

Domestic RPK fell (-3.0%) in June 2026 compared to the same month last year.

Domestic Brazil traffic was up 0.9%, but all other major markets declined apart from Australia which was flat.

The steepest falls were in China (-5.2%) and Japan (-3.8%), with higher fuel prices the likely reason. These markets also saw load factors decline, but the largest decrease in load factor was in Brazil (-2.5 ppt).