Texas Democrats await ‘blue wave’ amid skepticism, turnout concerns

For nearly two decades, Texas Democrats have held out hope for a “blue wave,” particularly amid changing demographics.

The state’s population is growing rapidly. Its major cities are becoming younger and more diverse, with Black, Latino, and Asian Texans accounting for much of that growth. Every election cycle seems to bring another round of predictions that Texas is finally on the verge of becoming a Democratic state. Yet, Republicans continue to win statewide.

The question heading into the 2026 midterms elections has shifted from whether Texas is changing to whether that change will translate into political power.

Where is the optimism coming from?

A part of the optimism rests on the woman Democrats hope will break a three-decade statewide losing streak, State Rep. Gina Hinojosa of Austin, who won the Democratic nomination for governor in March against Gov. Greg Abbott with 60.5% of the vote. She cited recent wins as evidence.

“It happened in Tarrant County, where we flipped the state senate. It happened in Leander, where we flipped the mayor’s seat,” Hinojosa said.

In January, union machinist Taylor Rehmet won a runoff for Texas Senate District 9 with 57% of the vote, flipping a Fort Worth-area seat the GOP had held since 1991, in a district Trump had carried by 17 points in 2024. Weeks later, Na’Cole Thompson won a special election for mayor of Leander, a Williamson County suburb Trump had carried by roughly four points, with 57% of the vote in a nonpartisan race that national Democrats nonetheless celebrated.

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Meanwhile, following their runoff wins, Congressman Christian Menefee, Harris County judge nominee Letitia Plummer, and Fort Bend County judge nominee Dexter McCoy vowed to channel their focus into turning Texas blue.

“We are united in ensuring that Democrats win every single county-wide race in Harris County, win every single county-wide race in Fort Bend County, and do all we can to flip the state of Texas and make sure that flows through Harris and Fort Bend County,” Menefee said.

These upsets could be what’s fueling the optimism within the Democratic Party.

“I really think this is the time that Texas can turn blue,” said Joe Dumas, an attorney. “It’s going to be hard. I don’t think it’s gonna be like a 60-40, but it’s gonna be a 51-49 kind of split. There are Republicans who are also upset and gonna vote angrily against their own party this time.”

Adrianna Ivory, also an attorney, sees the same trend.

“There are people who have been so disengaged in the past few voting cycles that they’re having a hard time buying in,” Ivory said. “Seeing the rest of us buy in, seeing people who have voted every election cycle, even though we perhaps have been let down, is gonna bring those people out in the same way.”

Is there merit to the optimism?

Special elections, though, draw small and motivated turnouts that have not always predicted what happens once the full electorate shows up.

Trump carried Texas by 13.7 points in 2024, the state’s widest presidential margin in two decades, up sharply from 5.6 points in 2020, while Ted Cruz beat Allred by 8.49 points in the U.S. Senate race, six points wider than his narrow 2018 win over Beto O’Rourke. Abbott beat O’Rourke by 10.9 points in 2022, barely down from his 13.3-point margin in 2018.

No Democrat has won statewide office in Texas since the mid-1990s, and none has won a U.S. Senate seat there since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988.

Several voters reconciled that gap by pointing at the rolls rather than the polls.

“If you look at the voter records, there are a lot of people that are on record that have voter registrations. They just don’t vote,” said Karla West, the Democratic precinct chair for downtown’s Precinct 16, citing her own Congressional District 18. “We’re the most diverse city in the entire nation…generally, not everybody, but most people of color generally vote Democrat. We need more people to stand up, use their voices, and hold people accountable so we can easily flip Texas blue. We just got to get people to do their part and vote.”

Zora Smith, a master’s student at the University of Houston with a focus on policy and advocacy, said the young voter pool has the potential to create meaningful change, but remains skeptical.

“I’m often on the fence,” Smith said. “We just need every young voter to come out and vote. We need people on college campuses. We need our elected officials to come out and actually encourage young people to have these conversations. What we’re really missing is transparency. We need more community organizing.”

Some young voters, like Mariah Adeeko, an organizer with the youth-focused nonprofit Young Invincibles, are not so sure, attributing low turnout to logistical issues and low motivation.

“No, I do not think that the 2026 midterm elections will turn Texas blue…it will probably take us another two general elections for us to turn Texas,” Adeeko said. “But it will move the needle forward…I’m seeing people canvas, organize, but I am still wary about excruciatingly long lines at all of the polling centers.”

Too many cooks?

Michelle Durham, a resident in her third year of voting in Texas, pointed to party discipline that still reveals gaps in organization.

“We have to get out into the community and inform all of us more,” Durham said. “People should go everywhere…and talk to people in a way that helps ’em understand how their vote will matter in their day-to-day life. We have too many different candidates sometimes even within the Democratic party that are saying different things, and we really need a unified voice for that everyday voter.”

Redistricting efforts and impact

Redistricting has also complicated the question of whether Texas’ growing Black population is translating into greater political influence. Voting rights advocates and political analysts argue that recent congressional maps have reshaped, and in some cases diluted, Black voting power.

Voting rights activist Pamiel Gaskin told the Defender that Black voters were effectively “packed” into fewer districts, reducing their influence elsewhere.

Michael O. Adams, director of the Master of Public Affairs Graduate Program at Texas Southern University, similarly noted that many Black and Latino voters were shifted into the newly configured 18th Congressional District, transforming it into what redistricting experts call a “minority opportunity district” designed to concentrate minority voters rather than expand their influence across multiple seats.

Ihsan Baha, a precinct chair, agreed that Black voter turnout has lagged, but called it fixable.

“I don’t think we’ve had enough [turnout] to come out for this past election, but we’re working on it,” Baja said. “Education, showing them how important it is, not just registering voters, but getting them out to the polls. That’s a priority.

When it comes to the upcoming Senate race between Attorney General Ken Paxton and State Rep. James Talarico, voters like Darrell Jordan, a U.S. Army veteran and former Harris County judge, pointed to Paxton’s record as an indication that the seat can be flipped in November. Paxton was indicted on securities-fraud charges in 2015 and impeached, then acquitted, in 2023.

“We can flip that seat because there are a lot of people who are upset with him, who do not support the things that he’s been accused of,” Jordan said. “If Talarico does his part, comes out to the African American community and all communities and asks for their vote specifically, I think this is the time that we can have a statewide seat.”